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Saturday, April 28, 2012

Let The Real Games Begin.. West Preview of Round 1


Let the real games begin… After a 66 game jam packed schedule it’s time for the moment all NBA fans have been waiting for, the playoffs.  This best of seven series tournament shows what players are really made of.  Player’s legacies are made here.  And the only way players, coaches and teams can build their legacy is by hoisting that Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end.  16 teams are all chasing the same dream whether it could be their first time getting it (Utah, Indiana, Orlando, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Denver and LA Clippers), teams trying to get back on track, (Atlanta and Philadelphia), a team trying to get one after the great one left, (Chicago), a city/team reviving once again (New York), a team trying to defend it (Dallas), or the teams trying to add on to it (San Antonio, Boston and LA Lakers).  This dream can’t be captured if they can’t win the first round.  This is why history begins in round 1.

1 San Antonio vs 8 Utah Jazz: Last year the Spurs were the number one seed and they looked well equipped to make a playoff run with a new fast pace offense established by Gregg Popovich.  But right before the playoffs were about to begin, Manu Ginobili broke his right arm on the final game of the season and ran into a Zach Randolph Grizzlies team in the first round that matched up perfectly against San Antonio.  Six games later Memphis became the fourth eighth seeded team in the NBA to beat the number one seed in the playoffs.  Now this year, the Spurs are healthy heading into the playoffs and I think their team is deeper than last years.  You know they have a deep bench when while on a double digit winning streak, Popovich rests his starters and the team still continues the winning streak.  The Spurs went on some crazy winning streaks this year.  They went on a 11 game win streak twice and they are currently on a 10 game win streak.  How are they flying under the radar? 

Of course this shouldn’t be a hard match for the Spurs to play in, they did go 3-1 against Utah this season but Utah did end one of the Spurs high winning streaks. If Utah wants to pull this upset off they need Devin Harris and Gordon Hayward to keep playing out of their minds right now.  Al Jefferson needs to be the go to guy just as Zach was for Memphis and hope Daniel Green and Kawhi Leonard crumble under the playoff pressure.  Too much needs to happen, Parker should shut down Harris easily and as long as the Spurs stay healthy I don’t see any team beating them. Spurs in 5.

2 Oklahoma City vs 7 Dallas Mavericks: Rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma vs Texas, young vs old.  We all know nobody is giving the DEFENDING CHAMPS a chance, but that’s the thing as long as Dirk Nowitzki is still playing, the Mavs have a chance.  And with a rested up Jason Kidd orchestrating the offense anything could happen.  The Mavs actually match up well with OKC because of Shawn Marion and Delonte West leading the defense.  The thing I worry about is Brendan Haywood playing too much in this series.  OKC is very athletic so putting in Ian Mahinmi or most importantly Brandan Wright at center would be the best choice.  In order for the Mavs to accomplish this upset, they need to take either game one or game two on the road.  And if Dirk somehow throws up a 50 point game in their then they will have a really good chance.  Mavs players all season kept saying just get into the playoffs, well now that they have, it’s time prove once again veteran experience always beats young athleticism.  
The Thunder were built for a 66 game schedule but now that the playoffs give teams breaks, it’ll be about which coach can make the best adjustments.  Which team can perfectly execute a play call and which team can force the most turnovers.  Dallas was able to do this last year which led to their historic playoff run but haven’t been able to continue it onto the following season.  Meanwhile the Thunder have been struggling in crunch time but against Dallas, they actually have been thriving in the fourth quarter.  James Harden appears to be healthy and ready to go.  I think too many people were criticizing OKC with their jump shooting offense but Harden is the guy that attacks the rim and gets to the free throw.  As long as his concussion doesn’t affect his play, they’ll be fine.  If OKC wants to take their next step as title contending franchise, they have to defeat Dallas, then LA and finally Memphis or San Antonio. They’re going to have to prove they’re not in their early stage of being the underdog.  They are now the favorites and Kevin Durant’s legacy starts in these playoffs.  Thunder in 7.

3 LA Lakers vs 6 Denver Nuggets: Kobe Bryant the shooter will not be needed in this series because if Andrew Bynum wants to, he can dominate this series.  JaVale McGee or Kenneth Faired cannot contain Bynum just as long as Bynum tries.  The Nuggets can’t play like they’re just happy to be there.  They have a fast point guard (Ty Lawson) who can beat either Steve Blake or Ramon Sessions off the dribble. What Denver is going to have to do is play fast pace so Bryant the shooter comes out and Bynum is forgotten.  If Ron Artest is missed by the Lakers in this series, they might be in trouble but LA should slow down the pace and play half-court offense so they can feed the big men.  Lakers in 6.

4 Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers: Amazing how much a fourth seeded team is being favored to win the west.  Memphis can play big or small and they can play tenacious defense.  The Clippers couldn’t have picked a worst matchup for them.  Memphis has so many above average defenders, it’ll be easy to defend Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.  The thing about Memphis though, I don’t think this is the same team as last year.  Zach Randolph no longer leads this team, instead it Rudy Gay’s team.  Can Rudy Gay lead Memphis through 16 wins? Or can he step aside and let Randolph run the show?  Heck, is Randolph even the same player as last year?  (I don’t think so).  We’ll see how far that defense takes them in the playoffs.
Meanwhile the Clippers are in trouble, the only crunch time scorer they have is Chris Paul but Memphis has Tony Allen or Mike Conley to guard him.  Blake Griffin can’t be relied on, Randy Foye (even though he’s been shooting light out) can’t be counted on.  This is the Clippers first year together having success, and that Chauncey Billiups injury really did hurt them.  They’ll have more years’ together to add on but it won’t be this year. Grizzlies in 6.